Breaking Down the GOP

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The Iowa caucuses are over and by the time you read this, Mitt Romney will have won New Hampshire. While Iowa and New Hampshire won’t necessarily decide who the nominee is, the early states will affect the outcome of the race.

Here’s a quick update on where the race stands after the first two contests:

Michele Bachmann is out. Her candidacy was on the ropes since her decline last September and her last place showing in Iowa forced her to suspend her campaign. She will now likely focus on re-election  to the House — all while praying for a position in a Republican administration. She has no chance of becoming the Republican nominee.

Next, Rick Perry appears to be mortally wounded after finishing second to last in Iowa. Still, sitting on millions of dollars, he’ll make his last stand in South Carolina. It would take a top-two finish in the state where he’s currently polling in fifth place to turn things around. If he finishes strong in South Carolina and carries the momentum to Florida, the once-promising Perry could regain the title of anti-Romney. Perry’s conservative record in Texas and his professionally experienced team could make him a solid Romney alternative, but the poor Iowa showing really makes it an uphill battle.

There’s also Jon Huntsman. Like Santorum, he’s spent all of his time in just one state. Even with a relatively strong New Hampshire performance, Huntsman will quickly fall. He was a promising candidate with all of the right conservative credentials, but his proclivity for going out of his way to insult fellow Republicans and certain blocks of voters makes him an embarrassingly bad candidate (e.g., Huntsman recently said, “Iowan’s pick corn, not presidents,” and thus effectively ceded Iowa to President Obama in a possible Huntsman-Obama race). There can’t be much of a reason for the former China ambassador to remain in the race besides his desire to cement himself as the first choice for Secretary of State.

Newt Gingrich seems destined for failure as well. Decimated by attack ads, he has only made himself weaker by complaining about the intensity of the attacks.

Romney’s argument, that Gingrich will face much worse from President Obama, was right. Gingrich’s fourth-place Iowa finish means he’s toast. In the next few months he’ll only serve to do more damage to the Republican Party as he seeks vengeance.

The cliché analysis of Ron Paul’s candidacy is actually right: his foreign policy is so far from the mainstream (Bush was “gleeful” that 3,000 Americans died on 9/11) that his popular economic positions can’t save his candidacy. Still, Dr. Paul represents a movement and his movement has been successful.

Libertarian ideas to deal with American issues have been brought to the forefront of the national discussion and that’s as good as it gets for him. Don’t expect him to be the nominee — especially when he’s said he can’t envision himself in the White House — but expect to see him stick around, if only to keep the message alive.

Then there is Rick Santorum, who virtually tied Mitt Romney in Iowa. As of right now, he polls weakly nationally and has no real national infrastructure to prolong his rise. I predict that he will have a few decent showings in the early states by virtue of his strong Iowa finish and recent fundraising, but he will falter by Super Tuesday when Mitt Romney’s superior organization and financial means dominate.

The race is Romney’s to lose. He now polls better nationally than he ever has and he even squeaked out a victory of just a few votes — out of over 120,000 cast — in a state that he originally had no plans to compete in. Romney also holds more endorsements than any other candidate, including that of Senator John McCain. While the conservative base remains fractured, Romney should cruise to a hard-fought, but ultimately inevitable victory.

He has only one serious threat.

The conservative wing of the Republican establishment (i.e., wealthy and affluent donors who don’t like Mitt Romney) along with conservative grassroots organizers (i.e., the Tea Party, Christian evangelicals) are looking for an alternative.

As it stands, Santorum, Gingrich and Perry are all auditioning for the role. If conservative big money donors and grassroots organizers find and clearly define their alternative soon enough, Super Tuesday could be a showdown between Romney and the anti-Romney that effectively decides the nomination.

A strong challenger to Romney should be a welcome change for those seeking to defeat Obama. Whoever can survive a lengthy, expensive battle against another Republican will be battle-tested and strengthened in the same way that Obama was after fighting Hillary Clinton until June of 2008. Rather than being wounded, the winner will appear stronger and more presidential, as Obama did. And the President’s callous attacks on the nominee’s character — which will be his only real chance at winning with unemployment as high as it is — will seem old and overplayed.

Then again, this has been the most unpredictable race of our lifetime. Who knows? Maybe Dr. Paul will end up as the nominee and beat Obama in the general. I should invest in gold.

Adam O’Neal is a second-year biological sciences major and hosts a radio show called “The 2012 Update” Tuesdays at 8 a.m. on KUCI 88.9 FM. He can be reached at aoneal@uci.edu.

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