New University Oscar Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay
Fourteen of the past 20 Oscar winners for Best Adapted Screenplay won the same award from the Writers Guild. Four of the times when the Academy differed, it was because the Writers Guild awarded comedies (to which the Academy has an obvious aversion).
Only twice in the past 20 years has the Writers Guild awarded a drama with Best Adapted Screenplay and the Academy not gone along (they chose ‘The Pianist’ over ‘The Hours’ in 2002 and ‘Gods and Monsters’ over ‘Out of Sight’ in 1998). There’s no reason for them to buck the trend this year.